Evaluation of COVID-19 based on SEIR model This article intends to establish a reasonable infectious disease model

Abstract

for COVID-19, and establish reasonable predictive indicators through this model to express the virus infection status of the city over a period of time. Finally, predict the development status of the virus in 2021 and provide corresponding suggestions for government use. Firstly, this article studies a variety of mature infectious disease mod- els, and selects and improves the SEIR model that is closest to COVID-19. This article produced an understanding model of the COVID-19 in- fection mechanism. Secondly, the second question requires selecting reasonable indica- tors to evaluate the virus infection in the city. This paper selects the predictive index k, which itself is only related to the virus propagation time, and presents a change subject to the derivative of the logisic func- tion. This paper sets the parameters a, b and c as the parameters of k, and calculates the formula of the citya˛r´s predictive index k based on the specific infection development of the city. With the help of the formula of predictive index k, the citya˛r´s infected persons can be passed over a period of time. The number extrapolates the number of exposed persons to evaluate the level of virus infection in the city. According to the formula of predictive index k, the third question is directly calculated in Excel. The first nine months are the real data, the next three months are the test data, and the next year is the forecast data, and the k value of Guangdong Province is obtained. Image, and then get the forecast data for the second year according to the k value, and get the data image of Hubei Province in the same way. Finally, based on the model, this article gives suggestions for epidem- ic prevention in Guangdong Province.