Analysis of the "neck up" and "tail down" effects brought about by the development of high proportion of renewables

Abstract

As the proportion of new energy in the power supply structure continues to increase, the supply capacity and adjustment capacity demand of the power system will change greatly, and the net load curve will show the characteristics of "neck" and "tail". In addition, large-scale new energy access has an increasingly significant impact on the safe and stable operation of the power system, and more consideration is given to the power value of new energy in the planning process while ignoring its capacity value, resulting in resource waste and over-investment. Based on the method of the net load persistence curve, this paper analyzes the trend and characteristics of regional supply and regulatory demand of the State Grid Company under the new situation and puts forward an improved ELCC method to analyze the new energy confidence capacity of each region.