The Analysis of Business Cycle Facts in the United States

Abstract

This research uses the HP filter to analyze the cyclical fluctuations of variables such as GDP, consumption, investment, and wages in the US economy, thereby revealing the characteristics of the US business cycle. Investment is the most volatile and highly sensitive to economic cycle changes; wages are lagging and may intensify stickiness during recessions; consumption and investment fluctuate with GDP simultaneously, and were severely impacted during the pandemic. Based on this, the article puts forward policy suggestions, including guiding investment behavior, implementing employment protection measures, and establishing a flexible economic monitoring system. The research results indicate that the business cycle in the United States has a complex dynamic mechanism. Future research should broaden its scope to draw more universal conclusions.